Welcome to 1995. Haters are gonna hate. I'm gonna buy Facebook.
1 -- Investor risk preferences. With interest rates at 0 forever,
prices will escalate. Stocks are super cheap (14x multiple?). It follows that speculative
money will flow to stocks. And not just
any stocks, growth stocks! There aren’t many exciting companies left in the US,
and Facebook is one of the few. So sector allocation will be heavily weighted
to growth/Facebook. Or just Facebook. On a related note: long QQQ.
2 -- Exponential growth. Let the good times keep on rolling. To clarify:
3 -- People love social media for some reason. And Facebook
is one of the few companies in the social media group with a long term
profitable business model. Facebook's prospects are much more attractive than
other recent IPOs such as LNKD, P, ZNGA, etc.
4 -- Inflation is a thing. That may or may not happen. And GDP
targeting? Good for prices.
5 -- I love the short case. If you are going short (there
sure are a lot of you!), please sell Facebook as soon as possible. Give me that
sweet discount.
People talking about valuation, get ready to lose your
lunch. Sure the valuation is ridiculous, but it will get more ridiculous. If
you are still thinking "little upside, and a lot of downside," refer
back to my chart.
Plus, this nerd is my counter-party: http://www.aswathdamodaran.blogspot.com/2012/05/facebook-hoodies-hubris-and-hoopla.html
blah blah blah blah
Isn't this fun? Long Facebook.
